Backfire

Simon Jackman, FASSA

Honorary Professor, University of Sydney

Labor’s recovery over calendar year 2025

  • Labor election results TPP 55.2%; 34.6% 1st preference. But this is not where Labor was at the start of 2025!
  • My poll average
  • Yes polls underestimated Labor strength, but even allowing for that: at the start of 2025, Labor was well off its final result and almost surely trailing its 2022 result.
  • Labor’s recovery in calendar year 2025 my focus here.
  • Panel data collected by Prof Nicholas Biddle (ANU) helps us track and test hypotheses about the drivers of Labor’s recovery.

Voting intentions, by panel wave

Dec 2024

Jan/Feb 2025

March 2025

May 2025

Vote intention

All

Voters

All

Voters

All

Voters

All

Voters

Actual

ALP

26.5

30.0

25.7

29.6

30.5

33.7

29.8

34.6

34.6

Coalition

36.0

40.8

34.1

39.4

33.8

37.2

27.4

31.9

31.8

GRN

12.4

14.1

12.1

14.0

13.3

14.6

10.5

12.2

12.2

OTH

13.3

15.1

14.8

17.0

13.2

14.5

18.4

21.3

21.4

DK/NV/INF

11.7

-

13.3

-

9.2

-

13.9

-

-

Effective n

1,211

1,166

1,048

1,091

1,143

1,121

1,119

1,496

Movers and stayers


Jan/Feb 2025

Post-election
reported vote

ALP

Coalition

GRN

OTH

DK/NV/INF

ALP

74.9

11.6

21.4

6.9

22.6

Coalition

5.2

67.7

0.7

5.3

15.9

GRN

8.2

2.3

52.2

6.3

2.9

OTH

4.2

8.3

10.9

63.8

27.8

DK/NV/INF

7.5

10.1

14.7

17.8

30.9

Albanese & Dutton average likeability, by wave

Change in Dutton net likeability

Voice as driver of transitions


Jan/Feb 2025 by Voice vote

ALP

Coalition

Greens

Other

DK/NV/INF

Post-election

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

ALP

79

78

9

23

16

24

6

10

23

42

Coalition

2

4

77

50

2

0

5

6

25

10

GRN

2

12

0

8

47

63

0

28

0

15

OTH

5

4

8

9

11

13

65

56

12

34

DK/NV/INF

12

2

6

10

24

0

24

0

40

0

Leader evaluations, Voice and move to or stay with Labor

Summary

  • Unique panel design lets us track and analyse transitions in voting intentions over the pre-election period & campaign

  • More to the story than transitions to Labor; e.g.,

    • transitions away from the Coalition,
    • to minor parties and others

  • Dutton/Albanese contrast activated by Labor campaign (and poorly countered by LP campaign):

    • produces not just change in evaluations of leaders
    • but change in salience in voter decision-making

Summary

  • Voice drives transitions, but not in the way that the Coalition hoped!

    • interaction with leader evaluations

    • Coalition/Yes 2.5 times more likely to flip to Labor than Coalition/No (25% vs 9%)

    • Voice has no predictive power with respect to Labor move/stay

  • Not discussed here but for chapter:

    • demographic characteristics of postcodes/locales
    • wealth/SES, cosmopolitanism/traditionalism

  • Low engagement voters more likely to transition